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The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010440436
We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173525
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463407
inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Median multipliers range … distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014364021
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486599
across the sample. Evidence in favour of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on the output and inflation is found from … in the last part of the 1990s and, especially, for the CPI inflation in the 2000s. The most outstanding result is that … the oil price movements could explain at least some of the recent inflation, the main difference between these outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011332599
Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606050
inflation facts. Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with Markov-switching policy rules, we identify three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543672
, inflation and unemployment, we detect a wrong sign in the response of inflation to contractionary monetary policy shocks … 1999-2019, when the Federal Funds Rate and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate are added to the VAR model inflation shows … significant unemployment inflation trade-off emerges. These conclusions are confirmed by using industrial production instead of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013201449
We use Bayesian techniques to estimate bivariate VAR models for Swedish unemployment rate and inflation. Employing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654434