inflation. This study focuses on the modern OPEC period since 1973. The results differ along a number of dimensions from the … sustained reduction in economic growth for a year. They also suggest a spike in CPI inflation three quarters after the exogenous … oil supply shock rather than a sustained increase in inflation, as is sometimes conjectured. Finally, the results of this …

fluctuations of output gap, however constructed or measured, are a good predictor of inflation in the UAE. This is carried out by … inflation in the UAE. …

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the … studies of pandemic-era inflation have confirmed that shocks to energy prices were important, but have not included imported … inflation more broadly. Estimation and simulation results indicate that wage growth was strongly affected early in the pandemic …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …

We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the … link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for … modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based inflation forecasts not only shadow survey expectations in the pre …

/financial uncertainty measures. Then, in the context of a VAR, we investigate the role of oil price uncertainty in driving inflation … expectations and inflation anchoring. We show that shocks to the mean factor lead to higher expected inflation and inflation … shocks in that they result in lower expected inflation, yet they do increase disagreement about future inflation among …

What drives the recent inflation surge? To answer this question, one must decompose inflation fluctuations into the … shocks unambiguously appear as the main drivers of the inflation surge in the United States, the euro Area, and in four small …

This paper proposes two measures of underlying inflation for euro area as an alternative to the Harmonized Index of … are subject to large or unusual price changes, which are unlikely to be related to the underlying trend of inflation … to assess inflation developments …