Macroeconomic conditions are among the key determinants of the inflation outlook. This paper studies how business … cycles affect the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation forecasts. Using a quantile regression approach, I estimate … the conditional distribution of inflation to assess the impact of business cycle conditions over time and the possible …

negatively correlated with inflation and inflation variance across countries. But the cross-country approach has been criticised … economy, higher output and somewhat lower inflation. We also investigate the interaction between the central bank and the …

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …

that the oil price passes through core inflation only via its effect on the whole economy. This pass-through is estimated …

This paper presents evidence on the persistence of inflation in the United States over the period 1947- 2010. Of … particular interest is whether the persistence of inflation has changed over that time period. We use a reduced form approach to … measuring inflation persistence, modeling inflation as an autoregressive process. We measure persistence as the half-life of a …

fluctuations of output gap, however constructed or measured, are a good predictor of inflation in the UAE. This is carried out by … inflation in the UAE. …

The time profile of inflation in China resembles the one experienced in major industrial countries. Given the … considered by Bordo, Landon-Lane and Redish (2004). Our principal finding is that inflation in China has been primarily driven by … monetary factors. While aggregate supply factors may have pushed inflation to cross the threshold leading to deflation …

This paper will derive a core inflation measure for Tunisia. The core inflation is estimated as the permanent component … of headline inflation within the common trends and common cycles model allowing for both short (common cycles) and long …-run (common trends) co-movements restrictions. The forecast ability of the estimated core inflation is then compared to the one of …

distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the …

We investigate the importance of trend inflation and the real-activity gap for explaining observed inflation variation … in G7 countries since 1960. Our results are based on a bivariate unobserved-components model of inflation and … unemployment in which inflation is decomposed into a stochastic trend and transitory component. As in recent implementations of the …