Zum Abschätzen der Unsicherheit gesamtwirtschaftlicher Prognosen: Eine Anwendung auf das Risiko einer Deflation in Deutschland Der vorliegende Beitrag schlägt einen Ansatz zum Schätzen der Unsicherheit vor, die mit modellbasierten gesamtwirtschaftlichen Prognosen verbunden ist. Unserer...

How has digitalization shaped the landscape of Canada's economy? In this paper, we seek to grasp the breadthof digitalization. We define digitalization and distinguish it from other related concepts, such as information and communication technologies (ICT) and the digital economy. We then assess...

This paper presents a tractable model of endogenous production networks with fixed costs associated with the formation of links between firms. The model consists of a finite number of firm types producing differentiated products. Each firm is characterized by firm-specific parameters describing...

This paper investigates the impact of capital flows on bank risk-taking behavior. It undertakes two levels of empirical estimations, namely (i) single-country industry-level; and (ii) multi-country industry-level estimations, covering emerging market economies. The results suggest that capital...

We show how to use a simple perturbation method to solve non-linear rational expectation models. Drawing from the applied mathematics literature we propose a method consisting of series expansions of the non-linear system around a known solution. The variables are represented in terms of their...

We characterize the Laffer curves for labor taxation and capital income taxation quantitatively for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries by comparing the balanced growth paths of a neoclassical growth model featuring ”constant Frisch elasticity” (CFE) preferences. We derive...

Phenomena such as the Great Moderation have increased the attention of macro-economists towards models where shock processes are not (log-)normal. This paper studies a class of discrete-time rational expectations models where the variance of exogenous innovations is subject to stochastic regime...

Africa has come a long way since the economic turmoil of the 1980s, the decade of "structural adjustment". Growth has been strong, yet poverty remains high. Underlying the shortage of good livelihoods and high social inequality is the lack of diversification in Africa's economies-in contrast to...

Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is...

Because financial and macroeconomic conditions are tightly interconnected, financial stability considerations are an important element of any monetary policy framework. Yet, the circumstances under which it would be appropriate for the Bank to use monetary policy to lean against financial risks...