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Efficient markets models assert that the price of each asset is equal to the optimal forecast of its ex-post or fundamental value. These models do not imply, however, that the covariance between two asset prices is given by the covariance between the ex-post values they respectively forecast:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005463944
period ahead; in the Volatility treatment, we also elicit subjective confidence intervals of forecasts, which we take as a … measure of perceived volatility. The realized asset price is derived from a Walrasian market equilibrium equation with non …-linear feedback from individual forecasts. Our experimental markets exhibit high volatility, fat tails and other properties typical of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005518715
period ahead; in the Volatility treatment, we also elicit subjective confidence intervals of forecasts, which we take as a … measure of perceived volatility. The realized asset price is derived from a Walrasian market equilibrium equation with non …-linear feedback from individual forecasts. Our experimental markets exhibit high volatility, fat tails and other properties typical of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005465209
investors. However, the higher overnight returns for B shares may be offset by higher volatility embedded in the B shares. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206057
-root process. Hyperbolic and quasi-hyperbolic discount factors can significantly increase the volatility of aggregate wealth and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662071
We develop a test for deciding whether the linear spaces spanned by the factor exposures of a large cross-section of assets toward latent systematic risk factors at two distinct points in time are the same. The test uses a panel of asset returns in local windows around the two time points. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053883
This paper aims to examine the relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and stock returns with full-sample and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219258
Many recent papers have investigated the role played by volatility in determining the cross-section of currency returns … returns from the currency carry trade. We show that the importance of volatility depends on whether the currency markets are … unexpectedly volatile. Volatility innovations during relatively tranquil periods are largely unrewarded in the market, whereas …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012591966
We construct a uniquely detailed, comprehensive dataset of trader positions in U.S. energy futures markets. We find considerable changes in the make-up of the open interest between 2000 and 2010 and show that these changes impact asset pricing. Specifically, dynamic conditional correlations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067957
In 2020, the futures & spot markets of crude oil have changed dramatically. This paper analyzes the price discovery process of the WTI and Brent crude oil futures & spot markets using the information share model of Hasbrouck (1995), and finds that each reverse of the dominant asset can indicate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313949