Modelling the risk that a financial institution may not be able to roll over short-term borrowing at the market reference rate, we derive the dynamics of (interbank) reference term rates (e.g., LIBOR) and their spread vis-à-vis benchmarks based on overnight reference rates, e.g., rates implied...

We develop quantitative methods to support financial product analysis-redesign required by the Carbon Equivalence Principle (CEP) to achieve financial net-zero and thus carbon net-negative positions. We then apply the CEP analysis-redesign to project finance for power generation across a range...

Banks representing 40% of global banking assets are members of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) who commit to net-zero carbon in their portfolio impacts by roughly 2050. Here we present methods for steering their derivative portfolios based on the mitigation cost (benefit) of CO2-equivalent...

We develop a novel stochastic valuation and premium calculation principle based on probability measure distortions that are induced by quantile processes in continuous time. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived under which the quantile processes satisfy first– and second– order...

We introduce the Carbon Equivalence Principle that requires carbon-equivalent flows enabled, or caused, by a financial product to have equal status with cashflows. This reveals that existing financial products already have environmental impact and so are ESG-linked, without the need for any...

In this paper incomplete-information models are developed for the pricing of securities in a stochastic interest rate setting. In particu- lar we consider credit-risky assets that may include random recovery upon default. The market filtration is generated by a collection of information...

A heat kernel approach is proposed for the development of a novel method for asset pricing over a finite time horizon. We work in an incomplete market setting and assume the existence of a pricing kernel that determines the prices of financial instruments. The pricing kernel is modeled by a...

We combine forward investment performance processes and ambiguity averse portfolio selection. We introduce the notion of robust forward criteria which addresses the issues of ambiguity in model specification and in preferences and investment horizon specification. It describes the evolution of...

In quantitative finance, we often model asset prices as a noisy Ito semimartingale. As this model is not identifiable, approximating by a time-changed Levy process can be useful for generative modelling. We give a new estimate of the normalised volatility or time change in this model, which...

This paper presents the first empirical assessment of the causal relationship between social capital and health in Italy. The analysis draws on the 2000 wave of the Multipurpose Survey on Household conducted by the Italian Institute of Statistics on a representative sample of the population (n =...