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I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
In this paper, we perform an in - depth investigation of relative merits of two adaptive learning algorithms with constant gain, Recursive Least Squares (RLS) and Stochastic Gradient (SG), using the Phelps model of monetary policy as a testing ground. The behavior of the two learning algorithms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012724434
Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035349
Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201596
framework for inflation as a process of restructuring. Contrary to existing theories of inflation, which tend to take structure … and institutions as given for the purpose of analysis, we argue that inflation could be understood only in terms of … restructuring arises as an integral part of capital accumulation. On the aggregate level, inflation appears as stagflation, with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789620
, ut*, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the … inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative …-run price stability depends critically on expectations about labor market tightness. Using a variety of cross-sectional data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014581875
effects on the equilibrium values of real stock of money, real income and actual and expected inflation, which ensue from the … effort to determine the time paths of income, actual and expected inflation towards their long – run equilibrium values …. Assuming that expectations are adaptive, we determine and solve a second order system of difference equations with constant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008490663
inflation. b) Relaxing rational expectations in a New Keynesian model partially substitutes for the additional structural …The assumption of rational expectations is potentially a serious source of misspecification in DSGE models. Many recent … theories of expectations formation have relaxed rational expectations and improved the predictive properties of benchmark …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011193661
Inflation is always an important indicator to measure whether economy is stable and healthy. This paper provides a … substantive survey of the research on the welfare cost of inflation, and uses the methods of consumer's surplus and neo …-classical general equilibrium models respectively to estimate the welfare cost of inflation in China. The results show that high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010934938
permanent income and inflation rates predicated on the assumption that the velocity turn over of money is stable over time. Both … current inflation and growth rate of money 18 months earlier. The error correction regression reveals that both M1 and M2 … cointegrated with the growth rate of real GDP. There is an absence of any contemporaneous homogeneity between growth rate of money …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004981527