We show that non-trivial aggregate fluctuations may originate with vanishingly- small common shocks to either information or fundamentals. These "sentiment" fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling variation in either first-order beliefs (as in Benhabib et al., 2015) or higher-order beliefs...

This paper argues that individuals may rationally weight price increases for food and energy products differently from their expenditure shares when forming expectations about price inflation. We develop a simple dynamic model of the economy with gradual price adjustment in the "core" (non-food,...

A large literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements. In order to explain these differences, we define the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic announcement as its ability to nowcast GDP growth, inflation and the federal funds target rate. We then...

Distortions in the elicitation of economic variables arise frequently. A common problem in household surveys is that reported values exhibit a significant degree of rounding. We interpret rounding as a filter that allows limited information about the relationship of interest to pass. We argue...

Within the last decade kidney exchange has become a mainstream paradigm to increase the number of kidney transplants. However, compatible pairs do not participate, and the full benefit from exchange can be realized only if they do. In this paper, we propose a new incentive scheme that relies on...

The Pennsylvania Adoption Exchange (PAE) helps case workers representing children in state custody by recommending prospective families for adoption. We describe PAE's operational challenges using case worker surveys and a regression analysis of data on child outcomes over multiple years. Using...

We test whether adverse changes to banks' market valuations during the financial and sovereign debt crises, and the associated increase in banks' cost of funding, affected firms' real decisions. Using new data linking over 3,000 non-financial Italian firms to their bank(s), we find that...

We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally-binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about Sudden Stop events. "Good" news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansions, increasing the...

We use single equation and simultaneous instrumental variable models to explore if individuals smoke during times of stress (i.e., motivation effect) and if they are successful in self-medicating short-term stress (i.e., self-medication effect). Short-term stress is a powerful motivator of...

We estimate a search-based real business cycle economy using quantity data and a broad set of wage indicators, allowing the latent wage to follow a non-structural ARMA process. Under the estimated process, wages adjust immediately to most shocks and induce substantial variation in labor's share...