We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well...

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data,...

Este trabalho estuda a eficiência produtiva do estado de Minas Gerais, analisando a evolução e a situação comparativa de sua produtividade total dos fatores (PTF). Mostramos que o estado seguiu a tendência geral do país de queda da PTF e que para qualquer uma das medidas que construímos,...

This paper will examine the effects of tax incentives for small businesses on employment level evaluating a program with this purpose implemented in Brazil in the 1990s. We first develop a theoretical framework which guides both the de nition of the parameters of interest and their identi...

We study constrained efficient aggregate risk sharing and its consequence for the behavior of macro-aggregates in a dynamic Mirrlees’s (1971) setting. Privately observed idiosyncratic productivity shocks are assumed to be independent of i.i.d. publicly observed aggregate shocks. Yet, private...

This paper discusses the structural and macroeconomic determinants of poverty in the recent Brazilian experience. The paper looks at the evolution of the main structural determinants of poverty in Brazil during the last two decades. It decomposed. changes of various poverty indexes across...

The authors evaluate the effects of idiosyncratic shocks to a father's income on his children's probability of dropping out of school, entering the labor market, or failing to advance to the next grade level. Their analysis uses a large rotating panel data set containing information on household...