gains to form their expectations. Using this framework, I successfully reproduce various stylized facts from the empirical …

This paper analyzes how the formation of expectations constrains monetary and fiscal policy design. Economic agents … the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty substantially narrows, relative to a rational expectations … analysis of the model, the menu of policies consistent with expectations stabilization. When agents are learning about the …

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals … are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and … association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the …

Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual … in general,' as well as 'the rate of inflation' and 'price you pay.' Reported expectations and perceptions were higher …' and 'prices you pay' focused respondents relatively more on personal price experiences-and elicited expectations that were …

should intervene in the business cycle. Following Ramey (2011b), we include expectations held by consumers and firms into the … findings also underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of …