frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to … outperform the standard three low frequency survey measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality, indicating …

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could … observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a …

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could … observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a …

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

assumption of rationality forms the basis of neoclassical economic theory, question of whether expectations of industrial …Expectations concerning key economic variables certainly influence decisions undertaken by economic agents. Since … enterprises are indeed formed rationally deserves careful attention. Direct data on expectations are available mainly through …

We consider Rational Expectations Equilibria in infinite horizon models in which equilibrium to-day depends upon the …

becoming a metric for rationality. When inferential expectations are built into a Dornbusch-style model of the exchange rate … inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size a …

inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Thus, rational expectations is a special case of inferential expectations if agents are unconcerned about mistakenly … an individual choice experiment showing preliminary support for inferential expectations in comparison to either rational …

expectations in the sense that any other expectations justifying his choices imply a smaller likelihood for the history he observes … with limited memory, then there are rationally formed expectations equilibria exhibiting an excess volatility that no … rational expectations equilibrium can match. Given that the limited records or finite memory case may arguably be the relevant …

particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …