This paper considers popular methods for the quantification of survey expectations.We investigate the asymptotic properties of two variants of the probability approach originally suggested by Carlson and Parkin (1975). It is argued that the traditionalmethod can be interpreted as an instrumental...

La psicologia mostra che la probabilità soggettiva associata ad eventi economici futuri viene distorta in modo sistematico, rispetto a quella oggettiva, da elementi psicologici diffusi e persistenti. Lo stesso vale per l'interpretazione retrospettiva dei fatti economici. In particolare, si...

Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...

Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

This paper analyzes the inflation expectation formation empirically for German consumers. The expectation formation process is analyzed for a representative consumer and for different demographic groups. The results indicate that German consumers are a relatively homogeneous group. There are...