Economic conditions have improved since the beginning of the ECF-supported program. Real GDP growth is expected to remain on an upward trajectory peaking at around 4½ percent under the program. Inflation is projected to decline further in 2024 although at a much slower pace than observed in...

Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Leveraging the remarkable progress that has been achieved in the last seven years, the authorities...

Brazil’s economy has shown remarkable resilience amid the ongoing disinflation. Economic activity has grown steadily, surpassing expectations, reflecting favorable demand and supply factors. With proactive and adequately restrictive monetary policy, headline inflation has declined to the...

Moldova’s economic recovery from the multiple shocks is proceeding, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Progress towards EU accession continues. Presidential elections are scheduled in October, to be combined with a referendum on EU accession

Libya remains a fragile state trapped in political uncertainty. Episodes of active conflict have become less frequent, but the country remains de facto divided between the West and the East and fragmented among various militias with competing objectives. The political economy constraints and...

Real GDP growth stalled at 3.8 percent in 2023, dampened by the deterioration of global economic prospects and the negative effect of electoral uncertainty on investment. After peaking in March 2023, inflationary pressures have eased. Led by a new presidential mandate, the authorities are...

The UK economy is approaching a soft landing, following a mild technical recession in 2023. A modest recovery is projected, with 0.7 percent growth in 2024, strengthening to 1.5 percent in 2025. Inflation has fallen rapidly from double digit levels last year in the context of easing energy...

Serbia continues to recover well from the energy crisis. The authorities remain committed to policies that will help maintain strong external and fiscal buffers and that will support disinflation. With the planned large increases in public investment, it will be important to further strengthen...

This paper proposes anchoring medium- to long-term fiscal policy in a Public Sector Net Worth (PSNW) target. Such a target widens the scope of fiscal policy to include public sector assets, in addition to liabilities—the focus of debt-based rules. A PSNW target is directly relevant to ongoing...

Paraguay's economy had a strong year in 2023, growing 4.7 percent. Growth this year continues to be led by robust agricultural production, exports, and high electricity generation. Monetary policy was adjusted timely to rapidly falling inflation and is now approaching a neutral stance. The...