Showing 251 - 260 of 37,230
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091715
We construct an empirical heterogeneous agent model which optimally combines forecasts from fundamentalist and chartists agents and evaluate its out-of-sample forecast performance using daily date covering the period from January 1999 to June 2014 for six of the most widely traded currencies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011093337
able to provide more accurate forecasting results than linear models. Therefore, simple autoregressive processes are … observations and autoregression residuals. The proposed forecasting models are applied to a large set of macroeconomic and … autoregression residuals, are somewhat able to provide better forecasting results than simple linear models. Thus, it may be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096630
This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests, commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality. Our framework is general: it can be applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099197
A two-stage forecasting approach for long memory time series is introduced. In the first step we estimate the … and yields good forecasting results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099291
of point and density forecasting. The relative accuracy is higher when the full distribution is predicted. We also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099568
This paper proposes the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a tool to select the predictors' set for bridge models. BMA is a computationally feasible method that allows us to explore the model space even in the presence of a large set of candidate predictors. We test the performance of BMA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099660
, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109841
n this paper I compare different models, a linear and a non-linear one, for forecasting industrial production by means … promising, as the forecasting performance shows a clear improvement over the linear parametric model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111454
terms of the forecasting performance of the FCI. Additionally, Bayesian model averaging can improve in specific cases the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111484