This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a … data for a wide range of specifications. In order to explain this poor performance, we use a forecasting error decomposition …

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting …. In practice, where information on structural breaks is uncertain a forecasting procedure based on robust weights is … performance of our approach relative to other forecasting methods. …

There is no standard economic forecasting procedure that systematically outperforms the others at all horizons and with … forecasting purposes where the traditional ARMA specification is preferred. Accounting for the Easter effect improves the forecast …

forecasting accuracy within factor modelling framework. Nested data means disaggregated data or sub-components of aggregated … mean square error is employed as the standard tool to measure forecasting accuracy. According to this empirical study we … enhance Latvian GDP forecasting accuracy. The efficiency gain improving forecasts is about 0.15-0.20 percentage points of year …

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the … forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of …

from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation …, Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While useful in developing models of forecasting inflation …

Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …

The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession … provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models … some countries and/or variables appear to be more adapted to non-linear forecasting. …

forecast unbiasedness, efficiency, encompassing, serial uncorrelation, and, in general, regression-based tests of forecasting …