Showing 341 - 350 of 37,230
This paper reports real-time out-of-sample tests of the ability of the U.S. Index Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to forecast the economy using "composition-changing" "as-published" versions of the LEI. It is an extension of recent work that focused on forecasts with a "composition-constant"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005001412
We develop a methodology for using intra-annual data to forecast annual budget deficits. Our approach aims at improving the accuracy of the deficit forecasts, a relevant issue to policy makers in the Eurozone and at proposing a replicable methodology using at best public quantitative information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005008353
The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012104
This paper applies three universal approximators for forecasting. They are the Artificial Neural Networks, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012487
-term predictions. Due to the characteristics of the residuals, a bootstrapping method of forecasting was also used, yielding even …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764194
In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding employment and industrial production in the US, using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005767588
compare the forecasting performance of the various volatility models in the sample periods before and after the terrorist …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790340
In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the non-linear time series SETAR model by using Canadian … GDP data from 1965 to 2000. Besides the with-in-sample fit, the forecasting performance of a standard linear ARIMA model … for the same sample has also been generated for comparative purposes. Two forecasting methods, 1-step-ahead and multi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005801970
incorporating the wavelet transform in existing forecasting methods can improve their quality. The article aims to verify this by … characteristics. We find that wavelets do improve the forecasting quality. Depending on the data's characteristics and on the … forecasting horizon we either favour a denoising step plus an ARIMA forecast or an multiscale wavelet decomposition plus an ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008554286
In this paper, nowcasts are provided by a factor model, where factors are extracted from a small number of monthly series, selected using the LARS algorithm (Least Angle Regression). We follow the work of Bai and Ng (2008) which contrasts strongly with the traditional factor model based on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008478314