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reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009226070
In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009277851
Empirical assessments of the forecasting power of spatial panel data econometric models are still scarcely available … test different forecasting horizons, in order to investigate the speed of deterioration of forecasting quality. We compare … appears to diminish as the forecasting horizon widens, eventually leading the SF model to being preferred for more distant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010734921
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010734982
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010737092
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738344
The use of large-dimensional factor models in forecasting has received much attention in the literature with the … model which is better suited for forecasting compared to the traditional principal components (PC) approach.We provide an … asymptotic analysis of the estimator and illustrate its merits empirically in a forecasting experiment based on US macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851192
Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models are developed to forecast industry employment for a resource-based economy. Two different types of input-output (I-O) information are used as priors: (i) a reduced-form I-O relationship and (ii) an economic-base version of the I-O information....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010547715
In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010569713
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955284