The growing adoption of an inflation targeting framework in emerging market economies has increased the importance of understanding inflation dynamics and forecasting its future path in these countries. The author considers the case of Turkey and investigates the performance of models that have...

The authors review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response. Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Even though time series estimates can provide...

The oil shocks of the 1970s, which quadrupled the price of petroleum, marked the end of an abnormal period of price stability and renewed interest in predicting the evolution of commodity prices. But most subsequent studies have focused on the short-run effects of price fluctuations, mainly...

The tropical timber market is characterized by multiple species, multiple products, and regional patterns of trade and production. In such a market, finding a representative price is a difficult and perhaps an irrelevant task. So Varangis conducted tests to see whether prices from different...

The authors extend the widely used Newbery and Stiglitz (1981) approach to measuring welfare changes from commodity price stabilization to a general equilibrium setting. They derive the welfare changes in terms of net consumer and producer surplus, rather than in terms of producer income as in...

The authors use survey data from Bangladesh to present empirical evidence on externalities at household level sales decisions resulting from increasing returns to marketing. The increasing returns that arise from thick market effects and fixed costs imply that a trader is able to offer higher...

The authors quantitatively assess the consequences of Hungary for three types of policies: removing quantitative import restraints in agriculture, both for all of agriculture and for each of five separate agricultural products; removing the export subsidy program in agriculture; and adopting a...

The frequent application of antidumping and countervailing measures in the United States in the 1980s has been described as a new form of protection. The author measures the effect not only of investigations (to evaluation claims of dumping or subsidies) but of the resulting duties, by measuring...

International commodity agreements (ICAs) fit uneasily in a world in which markets are becoming globalized and increasingly competitive. Development policy - both as preached by international agencies and as practiced by typically democratically elected and nonsocialist governments in the major...

The author examines the efficiency and equity of a market allocation of exhaustible resources and assesses the behavior of scarcity measures, such as relative price and rental rates. She finds little evidence of scarcity or impending shortage. Indeed, the evidence points to falling prices and...