In discussing the causes and consequences of large capital inflows to developing countries, the author emphasizes two things. First, although there are legitimate grounds for an optimistic long-term outlook on private capital flows to developing countries, there is little to suggest that the...

The author reviews trends and developments in world trade, investigating the elements involved in the accelerated integration of world trade rights in the past decade. He explores what conditions and policy initiatives make it easier for countries to benefit from global trade and capital flows,...

Latvia's experience over the past decade shows that economic growth and real convergence can no longer be assumedto be exogenously driven processes determined by given technological improvements and relatively higher factor returns. Instead, it is an endogenously driven process led by many...

Parallel exchange-rate markets have often been dismissed by authorities as a nuisance or as the domain of a small group of economic saboteurs. Using Tanzania as a case study, the authors argue instead that these markets played a central macroeconomicrole in the 1970s and 1980s. They provide a...

The salient characteristics of emerging market economies coupled with the increasing adoption of inflation targeting in these countries has stimulated much debate about the role of the exchange rate in inflation targeting regimes. The authors aim at shedding more light on this issue by...

The differences in financial development between advanced and developing countries are pronounced. It has been observed, both theoretically and empirically, that these differences in countries'financial systems are a source of comparative advantage and trade. This paper points out that to the...

The authors examine the empirical evidence on currency crises and propose a specific early-warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. An indicator exceeding a certain threshold value...

After surveying the facts and distilling the voluminous literature on the transition to market economies, the author arrives at several conclusions: with hindsight, the old debate - Big Bang versus gradualism - was really a problem of feasibility, although many of the arguments in favor of the...

The author explores the effects a transition from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system to a fully funded system may have on income distribution, fiscal policy, and capital accumulation. The author presents a heterogeneous agent model developed to study the transition from a...

The authors investigate the patterns and determinants of the currency risk premium in two currency boards-Argentina and Hong Kong. Despite the presumed rigidity of currency boards, currency premium is almost always positive and at times very large. Its term structure is usually upward sloping,...