This paper develops a theory of the precautionary demand for commodity stocks. It suggests that commodity stocks are held for precautionary purposes by producers, consumers, and intermediate processors, while speculators hold stocks on the expectation of capital gains from a subsequent price...

For 15 years the metals market has been characterized by slow growth - in some cases, even decline - in consumption. To test the proposition that structural changes in demand were the main cause of the slowdown, the author - drawing on U.S. data - uses an extended metals demand model that...

The markets for base metals have changed remarkably in the last few years. A long period of extremely low prices was followed by a sustained price boom in 1987-89 - which continued into 1990 for copper, nickel, lead, and zinc. The author examines the causes of the price boom in terms of market...

The International Commodity Markets Division (CM) of the World Bank started forecasting primary commodity prices more than two decades ago. The forecast accuracy, or forecast biases and informational efficiency, has been a major concern and the subject of occasional retrospective studies. This...

The main purpose of this paper is to take a new look at the commodity market (CM) price forecasts in light of recent investigations. The CM forecasts are similar in nature to the survey expectations in that both solicit market experts'opinions about future price developments. However, there are...