A user friendly approach to modeling the risk process is presented. It utilizes the insurance library of the XploRe computing environment which is accompanied by on-line, hyperlinked and freely downloadable from the web manuals and e-books. The empirical analysis for Danish fire losses for the...

We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter- occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our...

In this paper we address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices. After analyzing factors leading to the unobservable in other financial or commodity markets price dynamics we propose a mean reverting jump diffusion model. We fit the model to data from the Nord Pool power exchange and find...

For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and - as we show in the present article - modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard...

Power-law tail behavior and the summation scheme of Levy-stable (alpha- stable) distributions is the basis for their frequent use as models when fat tails above a Gaussian distribution are observed. However, recent studies suggest that financial asset returns exhibit tail exponents well above...

In this paper we study simple time series models and assess their forecasting performance. In particular we calibrate ARMA and ARMAX (where the exogenous variable is the system load) processes. Models are tested on a time series of California power market system prices and loads from the period...

A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of advertising in a duopoly market is proposed. In contrast to other agent- based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. The...

We address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices with regime switching models. After reviewing the stylized facts about power markets we propose and fit various models to spot prices from the Nordic power exchange. Afterwards we assess their performance by comparing simulated and market...

In this paper we study two statistical approaches to load forecasting. Both of them model electricity load as a sum of two components – a deterministic (representing seasonalities) and a stochastic (representing noise). They differ in the choice of the seasonality reduction method. Model A...