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Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-ninteenth century
Erten, Bilge - Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations - 2012
Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years with amplitudes 20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010852177
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Breaks, bubbles, booms, and busts: the evolution of primary commodity price fundamentals
Enders, Walter; Holt, Matthew T. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
This paper explores the behavior of real commodity prices over a 50–year period. Attention is given to how the fundamentals for various commodity prices have changed with a special emphasis on behavior since the mid 2000s. To identify changing commodity price fundamentals we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009644780
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How strong do global commodity prices influence domestic food prices in developing countries? : a global price transmission and vulnerability mapping analysis
Kalkuhl, Matthias - 2014
This paper analyzes the transmission from global commodity to domestic food prices for a large set of countries. First, a theoretical model is developed to explain price transmission for different trade regimes. Drawing from the competitive storage model under rational expectations, it is shown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010353578
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How strong do global commodity prices influence domestic food prices in developing countries? A global price transmission and vulnerability mapping analysis
Kalkuhl, Matthias - 2014
This paper analyzes the transmission from global commodity to domestic food prices for a large set of countries. First, a theoretical model is developed to explain price transmission for different trade regimes. Drawing from the competitive storage model under rational expectations, it is shown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010468222
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Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation : An Alternative Interpretation
Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier - 2009
With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle is not enough to guarantee a determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on restoring determinacy in New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and combine these with new empirical findings on the Federal Reserve’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014201193
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Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility: Comparison of the Snake and Visegrad
Valachy, Juraj; Evžen Ko?enda - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2003
analyze recent developments in the volatility of exchange rates of the Central European countries (the Visegrad Group) and a … exchange rate volatility: squared returns parametric model and GARCH. Both methods provide identical results for the currencies … of the Visegrad group: an increase in volatility after a floating exchange rate regime was introduced. The case of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207889
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Do Foreign Exchange Markets Matter Dor Industry Stock Returns ? An empirical investigation
BODART, Vincent; REDING, Paul - Institut de Recherche Économique et Sociale (IRES), … - 2001
that exchange rates have a significant effect on expected industry stock returns and on their volatility. The magnitude of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004985313
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Macroeconomic Instability in the European Monetary System?
Zumaquero, Amalia Morales; Rivero, Simón Sosvilla - Centro de Estudios Andaluces, Government of Andalusia - 2006
and Perron (2003). Results indicate that there is some evidence of structural breaks in volatility across investigated … variables, playing the realignments in the ERM a significant role in the reduction of volatility in some countries and sub … volatility of the member countries. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063173
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EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence
Bask, Mikael; de Luna, Xavier - Institutionen för Nationalekonomi, Umeå Universitet - 2001
How has the European monetary integration, with the creation of the EMU, affected the stability and volatility of … foreign exchange? In order to answer this question, stability and volatility measures are defined and calculated. We then use … these to investigate the changes in the stability and volatility of 16 European currencies, and in the volatility of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652009
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Oil Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility in Arab Countries
Mundaca, Gabriela - 2012
I test the bipolar view hypothesis on the exchange rates of countries of the AMF which are countries with relative free capital mobility. I find that oil price shocks seem to be the source of less flexible exchange rates
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109768