A key parameter that determines the distributional impacts of a policy shift in general equilibrium models is the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Despite the importance of this parameter in applied modeling, its identification continues to pose a challenge. Given the...

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore,...

In this document, we investigate the evolution of the income elasticity and the price elasticity of the demand for gasoline over the period 1975-2006. By using the Probabilistic Reduction Approach, we were able to model changes in mean heterogeneity and variance heterogeneity directly into the...

Econometrics is the area of statistics concerned in analyzing economic data, for both economic and business applications. This document, introduces the intermediate concepts of this area, for students already familiarized with basic econometric theory. In particular, topics concerning...

This paper investigates the determinants of the real exchange rate (RER) in Ethiopia. In particular, it assesses whether large capital inflows (e.g. foreign aid and remittances) have an impact on the RER. This empirical exercise tries to improve the current literature in a number of ways: (i)...

This paper studies the weak convergence of the sequential empirical process $\hat{K}_n$ of the estimated residuals in ARMA(p,q) models when the errors are independent and identically distributed. It is shown that, under some mild conditions, $\hat{K}_n$ converges weakly to a Kiefer process. The...

The purpose of this analysis is to assess the financial and budgetary performance of an administration. Therefore, the performance of the central and local administration is strongly connected to the capacity of controlling the expenses and to ensure the resources to cover it. Taking into...

Statistical data sets often contain observations that differ markedly from the bulk of the data. These outlying observations, ‘outliers’, have given rise to notable risks for statistical analysis and inference. Unfortunately, many of the classical statistical methods, such as ordinary least...

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of currency in circulation in Turkey. The currency in circulation is one of the most significant factors influencing the liquidity of the Turkish banking system. Therefore, the amount of currency in circulation has to be forecasted as...

In this paper we suggest the use of an internet job-search indicator (Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample comparison of many forecasting models. With respect to the previous literature we concentrate on the monthly...