In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

Case managers provide individual and comprehensive support to employees who have become incapable of working. Using data from a large insurance company we find that overall, 43.9% of the people in our sample could be reintegrated. Controlling for personal characteristics, we analyze the...

This paper proposes efficient estimators of risk measures in a semiparametric GARCH model defined through moment constraints. Moment constraints are often used to identify and estimate the mean and variance parameters and are however discarded when estimating error quantiles. In order to prevent...

We consider a nonparametric method to estimate copulas, i.e. functions linking joint distributions to their univariate margins. We derive the asymptotic properties of kernel estimators of copulas and their derivatives in the context of a multivariate stationary process satisfactory strong mixing...

This paper empirically analyzes moral hazard in car insurance using a dynamic theory of an insuree's dynamic risk (ex ante moral hazard) and claim (ex post moral hazard) choices and Dutch longitudinal micro data. We use the theory to characterize the heterogeneous dynamic changes in incentives...

The Single Market Project of the European Commission was supposed to change the financial service industry markedly. We provide a first attempt to assess its consequences on the insurance industry in Germany, the largest insurance market within the European Union. For this purpose we apply a...

The integration of European services markets and the associated deregulation measures open up formerly segmented markets to competition from the Single Market. The purpose of this study is to propose a method of measuring the effects of liberalization on technical efficiency, the existence of...

In the first part of the paper we present some classical actuarial models (the collective and individual risk model) and the probability theory behind. A discussion of pros and cons of each approach leads to an alternative approach where the losses on each policy is modeled by an individual...

The Single Market project of the European Commission was supposed to foster productivity growth in the financial service industry. We assess its consequences on productivity development in the German insurance industry, one of the largest insurance markets within the European Union, by applying...

We review the main “omnibus procedures” for goodness-of-fit testing for copulas: tests based on the empirical copula process, on probability integral transformations, on Kendall's dependence function, etc, and some corresponding reductions of dimension techniques. The problems of finding...