This paper introduces an expected value estimator with “expert knowledge” to the robust estimation of sovereign rating transitions which are characterised by few observations. Our estimates of default premia within Mexican, Colombian and Brazilian Eurobond yield spreads provide a better fit...

This paper complements theoretical studies on the Kelly rule in evolutionary finance by studying a Darwinian model of selection and reproduction in which the diversity of investment strategies is maintained through genetic programming. We find that investment strategies which optimize long-term...

This paper studies the role of strategy and the order book market mechanism in price dynamics and the order flow behaviour. To this end we analyse a zero-intelligence agent model of a dynamic limit order market. Stylised facts of limit order markets are shown to be influenced and, in some cases,...

In this paper locally risk-minimizing hedge strategies for European-style contingent claims are derived and tested for a general class of stochastic volatility models. These strategies are as easy to implement as ordinary delta hedges, yet in realistic settings they produce markedly lower hedge...

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and...

This paper presents a simple model of the firm life cycle that cap- tures several stylized economic and financial features which usually require considerably more demanding approaches. We study the opti- mal capital accumulation policy of a financially constrained firm whose revenue is subject...