The article summarizes the practice of creation and functioning of small business forms in agriculture of Ukraine, assesses their role and capabilities at the present stage and in the future, identifies priority, desirable directions for further development of society and mechanisms for their...

Technology is becoming deeply interwoven into the fabric of society. The Internet has become a central source of information for many people when making day-to-day decisions. Here, we present a method to mine the vast data Internet users create when searching for information online, to identify...

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about the challenges associated...

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms...

This paper documents the existence of a slowly evolving trend in the dividend-price ratio, dp, determined by a demographic variable, MY: the middle-aged to young ratio. Deviations of the dividend-price ratio from this slowly evolving long-run component explain transitory but persistent...

Economists have not been altogether successful in their efforts to forecast "core" inflation — an inflation measure that typically excludes volatile food and energy prices. One possible explanation is that the models used to make these forecasts fail to distinguish the forces influencing price...

The complex behavior of financial markets emerges from decisions made by many traders. Here, we exploit a large corpus of daily print issues of the Financial Times from 2nd January 2007 until 31st December 2012 to quantify the relationship between decisions taken in financial markets and...

Despite the vast academic literature on modelling stochastic volatility, many finance practitioners still use the simple "RiskMetrics" approach of J. P. Morgan (1997), based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) volatility combined with the $\sqrt{h}$-rule for scaling volatility...

Financial crises result from a catastrophic combination of actions. Vast stock market datasets offer us a window into some of the actions that have led to these crises. Here, we investigate whether data generated through Internet usage contain traces of attempts to gather information before...

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the...