Out-of-sample tests are subject to look-ahead bias when a forecaster constructs a model using an intuition derived from empirical patterns in the test sample. Even if model parameters are estimated without the test sample, information from it affects a forecaster's model choice. Since such...

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

We propose a method for forecasting individual outcomes and estimating random effects in linear panel data models and value-added models when the panel has a short time dimension. The method is robust, trivial to implement and requires minimal assumptions. The idea is to take a weighted average...

We propose a method for forecasting individual outcomes and estimating random effects in linear panel data models and value-added models when the panel has a short time dimension. The method is robust, trivial to implement and requires minimal assumptions. The idea is to take a weighted average...

We nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be predicted, forecasting uses only data up to the previous...

Measuring and reducing energy consumption constitutes a crucial concern in public policies aimed at mitigating global warming. The real estate sector faces the challenge of enhancing building efficiency, where insights from experts play a pivotal role in the evaluation process. This research...

Benoit Mandelbrot (1924-2010), a pioneering mathematician, created a new awareness of the chaos of nature - its randomness, irregular shapes, sharp edges, corners, and gaps. He developed the theory of fractals to describe these phenomena, and he also applied his concepts to financial markets....

The disappointing performances of existing economic models are largely due to their reliance on physical calendar time, making them static and rigid. Ultimately, this means that they fail to respond to the disruptive events that characterize markets and the economy at large with sufficient...

Economic models are the tools of decision makers in governments and central banks. As such, they affect our everyday lives. But what is the actual track record of these models, and do they really work? Applying them in real time and validating them on a day-by-day basis leads to a clear...

This essay argues that the current global financial and political system was not designed for a technology-driven society and, as such, is unfit for purpose. In short, it is a “broken bicycle”; no matter how expert the rider, the result will always be failure. To fix the bicycle, we have to...