The equilibrium exchange rate is a closely scrutinized variable in international finance and monetary economics. A model to estimate an equilibrium exchange rate is proposed in this paper. It consists of several building blocks: a state-space structure, uncovered interest parity and the...

A two-block open economy model is estimated in this paper using Australian and U.S. data. Evaluation of the estimated model is carried out in relation to a simple closed economy alternative. Namely, we inspect the implied transmission mechanisms, and examine the relative out-of-sample...

We investigate the theory and empirics of currency substitution and currency complementarity. Analytical tractability is facilitated by focussing on a small currency. Data spanning 1985 to the turn of the century contain evidence of the Australian dollar’s substitution for the mark and...

This paper investigates effects of third-currency monetary policy shocks on exchange rates. For this purpose we setup a structural VAR model containing the exchange rates of the three major currencies – the U.S. dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen – and short-term interest rates on the...

An attempt to quantify possible negative effects of external crises in emerging market economies is made in this paper. The direct and indirect effects of the external crises, here sudden stops in capital flows and currency crises, are estimated and compounded into composite overall effects. In...

The ECB recommends to prospective euro-area members that they choose the central parities, for fixing their currencies against the euro, consistent with a broad range of economic indicators while taking account of the market rate as well. In this paper, we estimate a behavioral model of the real...

According to economic theory, the capital inflows reversal – so-called sudden stop – has a significant negative effect on economic growth. This paper investigates the direct impact of current account reversals on growth in Central and Eastern European countries. Two steps to conduct the...

This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect...

The behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model of the Czech koruna is derived in this paper and estimated by three methods suitable for non-stationary time series. The considered potential determinants of the real equilibrium exchange rate are the productivity differential, the interest...

Natural disasters could constitute a major shock to public finances and debt sustainability because of their impact on output and the need for reconstruction and relief expenses. This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model to systematically estimate the impact of geological, climatic,...