The simulation of different macroeconomic policies depending on numerous objectives of national importance is a first order necessity for the Republic of Moldova, given the problems that it has to face in the transition period. Three macroeconomic models are presented and simulated: one of the...

Using a bivariate GARCH model of inflation and output growth we find evidence that higher inflation and more inflation uncertainty lead to lower output growth in the Japanese economy. These results support the argument of a price stability objective for the monetary authority.

Bu çalışmada enflasyon ve büyümenin GARCH modelleri kullanılarak enflasyon, büyüme ve reel-nominal belirsizlikler arasındaki Granger-nedensellik ilişkileri araştırılmıştır. Türkiye’de 1985:01-2003:11 dönemlerinde yüksek enflasyonun nominal belirsizlikleri artırdığı ve...

This paper investigates time series properties of the tourism revenues in Turkey over the period from 1997:01 through 2010:03. First, we determine the integration order by using different versions of Robinson tests. Second, we test if the tourism revenues show any structural changes over the...

In this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed...

In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare...

Pakistan with highest number of terrorism related deaths of any country over the past decade, the number exceeding the total terrorism related deaths for both the European and North American continents, provides an ideal laboratory to study impact of terrorism on the macroeconomy (GTD, 2012)....

We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and quarterly data for five Asian countries to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on in°ation and output growth. We conclude the following. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth...

This paper outlines the importance of confidence and sentiment indicators in forecasting short-term economic growth. I used an econometric model similar to the one used by Kitchen and Monaco (2003), and I made forecasts regarding the economic growth of Romania. The model is combining different...