We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960 - 2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the...

The price of aggregate risk in the UK appears to have risen significantly since the start of the financial crisis and the associated extended recession. This paper examines the relationship between the business cycle and equity market returns to see how robust this association is. Several...

This paper develops the CCAPM model to allow for long-run risk in durable consumption. Allowing Epstein-Zin preferences to incorporate non-separability of durable and non-durable consumption in utility provides for an Euler equation which can be shown to provide a much better explanation of...

The equity premium in the UK appears to have risen significantly since the start of the financial crisis and the associated extended recession. This paper examines the relationship between the business cycle and equity market returns to see how robust this association is. Several classifications...

The conditional capital asset pricing model is applied to foreign currency futures prices, covariance risk being measured relative to excess returns from a broadly diversified portfolio of equities. Positive time-varing risk premia are found in all five currencies tested when the difference...

The equity premium in the UK appears to have risen significantly since the start of the financial crisis and the associated extended recession. This paper examines the relationship between the business cycle and equity market returns to see how robust this association is. Several classifications...

This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by...

The proliferation of factor investing strategies in recent years has highlighted the idea that a portfolio can harvest improved risk-adjusted returns through timed exposure to risk factors during times of elevated risk premia. While there is a large body of research on such risk factors and risk...