We study a stylized theory of the volatility reduction in the U.S. after 1984---the Great Moderation---which attributes part of the stabilization to less volatile shocks and another part to more difficult inference on the part of Bayesian households attempting to learn the latent state of the...

November 14, 2014. Presentation. "Does Low Inflation Justify a Zero Policy Rate?" St. Louis Regional Chamber Financial Forum, St. Louis.

June 29, 2012. Presentation. "U.S. Monetary Policy: Still Appropriate." Presented at Dialogue with the Fed, Little Rock, Arkansas.

July 10, 2012. Speech. "The Global Economy and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Delivered at the OMFIF Golden Series Lecture, London. Related news articles.

Delivered at the Commerce Bank Economic Breakfast, November 18, 2009

We study how the use of judgment or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We examine the possibility of a new phenomenon, which we call exuberance equilibria, in the New Keynesian monetary policy...