By providing guidance about future economic developments, central banks can affect private sector expectations and decisions. This can improve welfare by reducing private sector forecast errors, but it can also magnify the impact of noise in central bank forecasts. I employ a model of...

The 1989 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act provides a natural experiment in which the effects of institutional change on economic relationships can be studied. The Act set price stability as the single objective of monetary policy and gave the Bank great independence in achieving that goal. We...

By providing guidance about future economic developments, central banks can affect private sector expectations and decisions. This can improve welfare by reducing private sector forecast errors, but it can also magnify the impact of noise in central bank forecasts. I employ a model of...

Modern policy analysis makes extensive use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These models differ significantly from earlier generations of large-scale econometric models. I review what I see as major progress in the ability of economists to conduct model-based policy...

We derive a linear-quadratic model that is consistent with sticky prices and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the second-order approximation to the welfare of the representative agent depends on inflation and "gaps" that involve current and lagged unemployment. Our...

We build a business cycle model where employers' screening of heterogeneous workers plays a central role in determining both the flows into and out of unemployment. The model can address how differences between the US and European labor market flows affect business cycle dynamics. It provides a...