Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this...

This paper is about the issue of input parameter uncertainty in portfolio optimization in a discrete setting with finite states (such as the case in a world with different macroeconomic regimes). In such a setting, being unable to assign reliable point estimates to the probabilities (or...

We investigate how “news sentiment” in general and the “impact of news” in particular can be utilized in designing equity trading strategies. News is an event that moves the market in a small way or a big way. We have introduced a derived measure of news impact score which takes into...

A major obstacle to wider adoption of the newsvendor model is the difficulty of obtaining its key input---the demand distribution forecast, specifically when the products are new and no historical data are available. In such cases, judgmental forecasting methods are a commonly suggested...

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms...

We study the performance of sales forecasts which linearly combine model-based forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a unique and very large database containing monthly model-based forecasts for many pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by thirty-seven different experts, we document that...

The dependence of stock prices on time is analyzed during major stock market crashes from the beginning of the 1929 Wall Street Crash to recent financial crises. A model of stock price dynamics is presented to describe the stock price decline during stock market crashes. It is shown from daily...

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the boosting approach can be used to define a data-driven board balanced scorecard (BSC) with applications to S&P 500 companies. Using Adaboost, we can generate alternating decision trees (ADTs) that explain the relationship between corporate...

We present a model for stock price and volume behavior during market panic conditions. The model incorporates a mechanism for the share exchange between buyers and sellers while taking into account their cash balances. We analytically show that during market crises, trading volume is inversely...

The goal programming (GP) is a well-known approach applied to multi-criteria decision making (M-DM). It has been used in many domains and the literature offers diverse extensions of this procedure. On the other hand, so far, some evident analogies between M-DM under certainty and scenario-based...