This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

This paper focuses on asset allocation decisions of life insurance companies in emerging markets. Mature market insurers allocate only a small fraction of their assets to emerging markets because of regulatory constraints, rating pressures, and currency risk. However, global insurers invest...

This paper shows that emerging market equity prices are influenced by growing global factors, and therefore global factors constitute a significant channel for spillovers when the international economic environment changes. Strengthening their resilience to equity price declines remains an...

In this paper potential financial linkages between liquidity and bank solvency measures in advanced economies and emerging market (EM) bond and stock markets are analyzedduring the latest crisis. A multivariate GARCH model is estimated in order to gauge the extent of co-movements of these...

Across a sample of thirty four emerging countries, the evidence shows the frequent existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal impulse. However, the scope for countercyclical policy increases with the availability of international reserves as it enhances credibility and mitigates concerns about the...

We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the...

This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the...

This paper examines alternative approaches to building sound financial structures in emerging market economies. The foremost task is to resolve the bad loan problem and to recapitalize insolvent state banks. By restoring an incentive for banks to price accurately the risks of new lending, this...

In the past few years there has been a large increase in portfolio capital flows into emerging markets, mostly fueled by mutual funds and other institutional investors. Based on a simple variance ratio test, this paper finds that emerging stock markets as a group experienced a sharp increase in...

There is considerable evidence from industrial countries that the output gap is an important determinant of inflation. We examine whether the gap model also works in developing, newly industrializing, and industrial Asian economies. Our output gaps are based on a new nonparametric estimation...