Price and income elasticities estimated from a country's export demand function are used both to predict and to prescribe effective export strategies. But the focus on elasticities has led to the neglect of an important empirical regularity: a strong persistencein the growth rate of a country's...

There are concerns that trade reform and globalization will increase the uncertainty that the average worker, especially the relatively unskilled worker, faces. The increased competitiveness of product markets and greater access to foreign inputs, the argument goes, will lead to more elastic...

The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both...

Structural reforms are often designed to change the prices of key goods and services. Since the overall intention of such reforms is the reduction of poverty, it is important to understand how the resulting price changes affect the poor. However, organizations seeking to provide timely advice to...

This paper explores an empirical methodology to assess the impacts of trade reforms on household behavior in developing countries. It focuses on consumption and income responses: when price reforms take place, households modify consumption and production decisions and local labor markets adjust....

The authors review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response. Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Even though time series estimates can provide...

Using household level panel data from Nicaragua, this paper explores the impact of the recent coffee crisis on rural households engaged in coffee production, and coffee labor work. Taking advantage of the panel structure of the data, a number of findings emerge: a) while overall growth between...

Sugar is one of the most policy distorted of all commodities, and the European Union, Japan, and the United States are among the worst offenders. But internal changes in the E.U. and U.S. sugar and sweetener markets and international trade commitments make change unavoidable and provide the best...

Although it is commonly believed that aggregate economic growth must be associated with public infrastructure stocks, the possible infrastructure needs and effects are different from industry to industry. The agriculture sector is typical. Various infrastructures would affect agriculture growth...

The authors construct and derive the properties of estimators of welfare that take advantage of the detailed information about living standards available in small household surveys and the comprehensive coverage of a census or large sample. By combining the strengths of each, the estimators can...