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We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011396784
A number of studies have used survey data on traders' exchange rate forecasts to examine the role of risk and non-REH forecasting in accounting for excess returns in currency markets. This work re-examines those results using an alternative estimation technique, the Cointegrated VAR, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010902277
The rationality of expectations has been tested in many foreign exchange markets using survey data. This study is aimed … at gaining empirical insights about the expectations of market participants in the Turkish foreign exchange market. Using … determined that the mean of expectations of market participants for one year and one month ahead were higher than the mean of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941572
absence of rational expectations or by risk premia in the foreign exchange market. By means of survey data, this study … demonstrates that both aspects are indeed important. On the one hand, survey expectations deviate systematically from future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005021868
general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective … trader groups. This paper investigates whether or not regressive and extrapolative expectations themselves exhibit … Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421709
general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective … trader groups. This paper investigates whether or not regressive and extrapolative expectations themselves exhibit … Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421955
Using Consensus Economics survey data on experts' expectations, we aim to model the 3- and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552982
This study tests several models of the currency risk premium, but does so using survey data on traders' forecasts to directly measure the expected excess return. Among those tested are UIP, CAPM, and the Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) gap model, which respectively imply that the premium is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010721552
error. On the whole, these studies have found evidence of violations of the rational expectations hypothesis (non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010721554
The Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) has been widely rejected on the basis of its implausibly large estimates of risk aversion, despite numerous modifications to its specification of risk preferences. This study instead relaxes the assumption of perfect foresight (REH), and uses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010723488