This paper develops statistical and computational tools for modelling returns forecasts to be used by a risk neutral investor. Any forecast with the same sign as the conditional mean optimises the loss function derived from this agents' decision problem, so the class of optimal predictors is...

We consider social choice rules which select a lottery over outcomes for each progile of individual preferences. Agents are assumed to have preferences over lotteries satisfying the axioms of expected utility. We exhibit a large class of rules satisfying strategy- proofness.

This note points out to applied researchers what adjustments are needed to the coefficient estimates in a random effects probit model in order to make valid comparisons in terms of coefficient estimates and marginal effects across different specifications. These adjustments are necessary because...

In this paper we examine educational data whch has a cross-classified structure. A cross-classified value-added multilevel model is proposed for these data and the problem of estimation are discussed in relation to the probllem of an endogenous regressor.

It is well known that the usual techniques for estimating random and fixed effects panel data models are inconsistent in the dynamic setting. As a consequence, numerous consistent estimators have been proposed in the literature. However, all such estimators rely on certain well defined...