This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using fan charts. These depict the magnitude of risks upside and downside surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for...

The paper by Debrun, Celasun and Ostry focuses on the assessment of debt sustainability and stresses the need to overcome one of the main drawbacks of debt sustainability analysis, i.e. the fact that it is usually based on a deterministic approach in which uncertainty is dealt with by simulating...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using ""fan charts."" These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s...