We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

In the midst of a major U.S. military effort in Iraq and the Middle East, economists should be able to assess the relationship between U.S. troops and growth. The necessity of military force in providing security for nation-building is a common assumption among policymakers and international...

Spanish Abstract: Empleando el método de componentes principales, este artículo examina la generación de conocimientos y el uso del sistema de propiedad industrial a nivel regional, y propone un índice de regionalización, complementado por un análisis comparativo de los costos de...

The most widely accepted explanation for the inverse association between private investments and current accounts [Glick and Rogoff, 1995] rests on data for manufactures through 1990. Is this consensus robust to revisions to the national accounts and the expansion of information technologies...

This study aims to explore the relationship between public debt and trade openness on economic growth in the context of the Indonesian economy. The symmetric model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag/ARDL) and the asymmetric model (Nonlinear ARDL) are employed to estimate the association among the...

We examine the (potentially nonlinear) relationship between inequality and growth using a method which does not require an a priori assumption on the underlying functional form. This approach reveals a plateau completely missed by commonly used (nonlinear) parametric approaches - the economy...

We uncover evidence of substantial heterogeneity in the growth experience of countries using a structural threshold regression methodology. Our findings suggest that studies that seek to promote mono-causal explanations in the institutions versus geography debate in growth are potentially misleading

The recent global recession requires policy makers to identify the relative importance of shock transmission mechanisms in each region and devise counter policy measures against future idiosyncratic shocks. In the last decade, world dynamics have changed considerably due to increased openness...

A través de la metodología de componentes principales, este artículo propone un índice de regionalización (IROPI) que permite tener un criterio objetivo para la ubicación a lo largo del territorio nacional de las oficinas de propiedad industrial en Colombia. Los resultados arrojados por el...

We examine the (potentially nonlinear) relationship between inequality and growth using a method which does not require an a priori assumption on the underlying functional form. This approach reveals a plateau completely missed by commonly used (nonlinear) parametric approaches - the economy...