The paper studies budgetary, financial and monetary policy evaluationand design using a comprehensive wealth or permanent income accounting framework. A set of stylized balance sheets and permanent income accountsis constructed for the public, private and overseas sectors.These are then...

The paper studies an idealized gold standard in a two-country setting. Without flexible national domestic credit expansion (dce)policies which offset the effect of money demand shocks on international gold reserves, the gold standard collapses with certainty in finite time through a speculative...

If Stage Three of EMU starts on January 1, 1999, transition issues remain on two time scales. Until July 1, 2002, national currencies and the euro co-exist as legal tender. We argue that intra-EMU currency risk exists in principle during that period, but that no EMU member can be forced out...

In an earlier paper,"Granger-causality and Policy Effectiveness," Economica [1984], I showed that for a policy instrument x to Granger-cause some target variable y is not necessary for x to be useful in controlling y. (The argument that it is not sufficient was already familiar, e.g. from the...

Jim Tobin, who died on March 11, 2002 at the age of 84, was one of giants of economics of the second half of the twentieth century and the greatest macroeconomist of his generation. Tobin's influence on macroeconomic theory is so pervasive - so much part of our professional 'acquis' - that many...

The paper addresses two issues that arise in estimation of testing of the real effects of anticipated and unanticipated money. First it is shown that identification of the effects of unanticipated (or unperceived) monetary growth on real output is possible only if the a priori restrict ion is...

The note mines an unsuspected lode in the Sargent-Wallace "Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" deposit. While that model is shown to be incapable of generating hyperinflations as a result of large monetized public sector deficits, it can generate hyperdeflations or perhaps more accurately, the...

We investigate how the ability of the government to depart from budget balance and issue debt expands the set of equilibria that can be supported using lump-sum tax-transfer instruments. We show how this depends on the restrictions that exist on the capacity to tax and make transfer payments,...

In a dynamic optimising model with costly tax collection, a tax cut by one nation creates positive externalities for the rest of the world if initial public debt stocks are positive. By reducing tax collection costs, current tax cuts boost the resources available for current private consumption,...

This paper examines three possible sources of "de-industrialization" in an open economy: monetary disinflation, an increase in the international price of oil, and a 'domestic oil discovery. The analysis is conducted using a model which incorporates different speeds of adjustment in goods and...