This paper utilizes VAR techniques to examine the relationship between a policy related variable and selected macro-variables in China. Johansen’s cointegration tests fail to find a moving equilibrium among the related variables. Based on a VAR model in first differences, we find that an...

In recent years, Keynesians and NeoFisherians have debated whether a low-interest-rate policy is inflationary or disinflationary. Both sides are wrong; interest rates are not a useful indicator of the stance of monetary policy. Some contractionary monetary policies lead to lower interest rates,...

We discuss the evolution in macroeconomic thought on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and present related empirical evidence. The core channels of policy transmission — the neoclassical links between short-term policy interest rates, other asset prices such as long-term interest...

Lucas (1972) is the pathbreaking analysis of the neutrality and temporary non-neutrality of money. But our central banks set interest rate targets, and do not even pretend to control money supplies. How is inflation determined under an interest rate target? We finally have a complete theory of...

The monetary conditions index is a composite index of interest and exchange rates frequently used by central banks, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. This paper considers the benefits and weaknesses of the monetary conditions index in...

The paper proposes three options for overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy: a carry tax on money, open market operations in long bonds, and monetary transfers. A variable carry tax on electronic bank reserves could enable a central bank to target negative nominal interest rates. A...

This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic news on the dynamics of interest rates and stock returns during "low" and "high" volatility periods. These periods are determined by estimating asset dynamics using a SWARCH process. Our results suggest that securities volatility is higher...

We argue that the government spending multiplier can be very large when the nominal interest rate is constant. We focus on a natural case in which the interest rate is constant, which is when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds. For the economies that we consider it is optimal...

We analyze the effect of monetary policy on yield spreads between corporate bonds with different credit ratings over the business cycle. We use futures contracts to distinguish between expected and unexpected changes in the Fed funds target rate and several indicators to distinguish between...