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Forecasting Global Flows
Skriner, Edith - 2008
information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011345414
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Forecasting global flows
Skriner, Edith - 2007
information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347054
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Forecasting global flows
Skriner, Edith - 2007
information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294037
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Forecasting Global Flows
Skriner, Edith - Department of Economics and Finance Research and … - 2007
information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764162
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Forecasting world trade: direct versus “bottom-up” approaches
Burgert, Matthias; Dées, Stéphane - 2008
from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604928
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Forecasting the world economy in the short-term
Jakaitiene, Audrone; Dées, Stéphane - 2009
forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605105
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Estimating gravity equations with endogeneous trade costs
Rudolph, Stephan - 2010
A basic assumption of the gravity equation of international trade is that increasing trade costs lower exports. Butintuition and theory imply that a high export volume lowers bilateral trade costs as well, because a fixed cost intensivetrade sector probably bears lower average costs with more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003941170
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Modelling Intra- and Extra-Area Trade Substitution and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area
Dieppe, Alistair; Warmedinger, Thomas - 2021
The paper proposes a modelling approach for euro area goods and services trade volumes and prices on the basis of a break-down of trade data into their intra- and extra-area components. Using the evidence from the newly estimated trade equations, the paper gives new insights into two important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317054
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Estimating Gravity Equations with Endogeneous Trade Costs
Rudolph, Stephan - 2010
A basic assumption of the gravity equation of international trade is that increasing trade costs lower exports. But intuition and theory imply that a high export volume lowers bilateral trade costs as well, because a fixed cost intensive trade sector probably bears lower average costs with more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014198178
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Factor Forecasts for the UK
Artis, Michael J; Banerjee, Anindya; Marcellino, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002
variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time …, the factor-based forecasts are shown to improve upon standard benchmarks for prices, real aggregates, and financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661430