We take a closer look at the question of whether dual traders in futures markets are indeed informed traders. Underpinning this question is the intuition that a dual trader's decision to trade on his own account is not random, but is endogenously determined by his expectations of trading profits...

We study the contribution of loans, granted to different borrower groups, to economic activity in the USA over the period 1971q1-2018q4. Significant economic recessions occurred along the period considered, we center our discussion around the recent Global Financial Crisis. Results are delivered...

To avert the impending global Cyber-Finance Insurance Crisis based upon large-scale commercial reliance upon quantitative models with inherent model risks, tail risks, and systemic risks in current form, this post-doctoral thesis makes the following key contributions: Develops the first known...

We describe a method to improve credit portfolio models based on the Merton model by adding to the underlying distributions forward-looking tails deducted through the Bayesian Networks technology. Given the forward-looking stance of the approach, its results give a better quanti ed picture of...

In this paper, we examine whether sell-side financial analysts show a bias when translating their soft information into a hard format. Sell-side analysts produce both soft research output, in the form of a textual report, and hard research output, including earnings forecasts, target prices, and...

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe primed a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Given these NPIs, whether the SIR parameters followed a Bayesian learning, a random walk pattern or other type of learning with evolving epidemiological data over time has implications for...

The amount of credit in the economy is a heterogeneous aggregate that can be analyzed across different dimensions. Considering such dimensions provides insights into the effect of monetary policy interventions because the credit components are observed to respond differently. Several possible...

Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different business climate indices on 38 policy indicators, they find little agreement among...

Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian...

We study the contribution of loans, granted to different borrower groups, to economic activity in the USA over the period 1971q1-2018q4. Significant economic recessions occurred along the period considered, we center our discussion around the recent Global Financial Crisis. Results are delivered...