Income per capita of Hungary attained 70 percent of the Austrian level by the end of the eighteenth century and fluctuated around this value between the World Wars. As an „achievement” of the last 50 years this ratio — measured at purchasing power parity — has decreased to about 40...

The paper summarizes the research on forecasting the Hungarian export volume. We elaborated a two-step procedure. In the first step we forecasted foreign demand, then in the second step we forecasted Hungarian export using the best outcome of the first step together with real exchange rate and...

In this paper we estimate risk-neutral probability density functions from EUR/HUF currency options using the Malz (1997) method. First, we compare different option-based indicators. We present so-called 'shortcut' indicators, i.e. indicators that can be calculated directly, without the...

The present regulation of concentration risk does not take into consideration recent, sophisticated methods in credit risk quantification; the new Basle Capital Accord has left the regulatory treatment unchanged. Recently, substantial work has begun within the EU on this issue with the formation...

This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable...

The interchange fee applied in four-party card systems transfers incomes in the payment card business from merchants to cardholders. Assessment of the interchange fee and the interpretation of its role have prompted serious professional debate in recent years. Beyond the professional debate,...

The paper interprets the growth and convergence experience of three Central-Eastern European economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) through the lens of the stochastic neoclassical growth model. It adapts the methodology of Business Cycle Accounting (Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan 2007)...

Using Hungarian macroeconomic and financial data, we estimate a Bayesian structural VAR model suitable for macroprudential simulations. We identify standard macroeconomic and credit supply shocks by sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the previous literature, different types of credit...

The study applies two approaches for the estimation of the social costs of main payment instruments (cash, debit card and credit card transactions, credit transfers, direct debits, business-to-business direct debits, postal inpayment money orders, postal outpayment money orders for pensions)...

The basic purpose of this study is to didactically demonstrate the factors shaping the currency swap stock of domestic banks prior to the crisis and to provide a descriptive analysis of how the structure and the functioning of the market changed during the crisis. The main conclusions of the...