This paper studies the All Ordinaries Index in Australia, and its futures contract known as the Share Price Index. We use a new form of smooth transition model to account for a variety of nonlinearities caused by transaction costs and other market/data imperfections, and given the recent...

A Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented, in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly, via observed option prices. A range of models which allow for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time-varying volatility in returns, are considered,...

Modelling the incidence of self-employment has traditionally proved problematic. Whilst the individual supply side characteristics of the self-employed are well documented, the literature has largely neglected (or misspecified) demand side aspects. In this paper we present results from an...

Nelson and Startz (Econometrica, 58, 1990), Maddala and Jong (Econometrica, 60, 1992) and Wolgrom (Econometrica, 69, 2001) have shown that the density of the two-stage least squares estimator may be bimodal in a just identified structural equation. This paper further investigates the conditions...

A study of academic results of a student cohort in a diverse faculty of a large multi-campus university indicates that students' first-year performance at university is related to their prior academic achievement at secondary school, both overall and discipline specific, but that the extent and...

Poskitt and Skeels (2003) provide a new approximation to the sampling distribution of the IV estimator in a simultaneous equations model, the approximation is appropriate when the concentration parameter associated with the reduced form model is small. A basic purpose of this paper is to provide...

This paper investigates association between portfolio returns and higher-order systematic co-moments at different timescales obtained through wavelet multi-scaling- a technique that decomposes a given return series into different timescales enabling investigation at different return intervals....

This paper has a focus on non-stationary time series formed from small non-negative integer values which may contain many zeros and may be over-dispersed. It describes a study undertaken to compare various suitable adaptations of the simple exponential smoothing method of forecasting on a...

In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a...

In this paper we compare two non-stationary time series using non-parametric procedures. Evolutionary spectra are estimated for the two series. Randomization tests are performed on groups of spectral estimates for both related and independent time series. Simul ation studies show that in certain...