A new innovations state space modeling framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time...

Corrupt activities are seldom observed directly. Naturally, everyone involved in such behaviour has good reasons to remain silent. Much progress has been made in cross-country econometric analysis on the determinants of corruption. Still, if one wishes to have a closer look at corrupt behaviour,...