The present study aimed at investigating the existence of long memory properties in ten developed stock markets across the globe. When return series exhibit long memory, the series realizations are not independent over time and past returns can help predict future returns, thus violating the...

This paper investigates the spurious effect in forecasting asset returns when signals from technical trading rules are used as predictors. Against economic intuition, the simulation result shows that, even if past information has no predictive power, buy or sell signals based on the difference...

This paper studies robust inference in unit root and cointegration models. The analysis covers a range of important inference problems including testing stationarity against unit roots, testing for structure change in nonstationary regressions, and testing for cointegration. We analyze these...

This paper proposes a variable addition test for exogeneity in threshold regression models with potentially endogenous right-hand-side variables. An accurate Monte Carlo study is undertaken and the results show the good finite sample properties of the suggested test.

Unobserved components (UC) models are widely used to estimate stochastic trends in macroeconomic time series, with the existence of a stochastic trend typically motivated by a stationarity test. However, given the small sample sizes available for most macroeconomic variables, standard Lagrange...

Is In this paper we provide a detailed analysis of the impact of persistent cycles on the well-known semi-parametric unit root tests of Phillips and Perron (1988, Biometrika 75, 335.346). It is shown analytically and through Monte Carlo simulations that the presence of complex (near) unit roots...

We propose a discussion index model (Stock and Watson, 2002) to fore- cast electricity demand for one hour to one week ahead. The model is particularly useful as it captures complicated seasonal patterns in the data. The forecast performance of the proposed method is illustrated with a simulated...

In this paper we investigate the properties of the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) in the presence of additive outliers (AO's). We show analytically that both the asymptotic size and power are adversely affected...

This article discusses the use of Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) in inference procedures and construction of unit root tests in stochastic volatility models. This approach allows to obtain accurate analytical approximations for the parameters and latent volatities, representing...

This paper presents a new framework for coping with problems often encountered when modeling seasonal high frequency data containing both flow and stock variables. The idea is to apply a multivariate weekly representation of a daily periodic model and to exploit the possible cointegration and...