Macroeconomic model builders attempting to construct forecasting models frequently face constraints of data scarcity in terms of short time series of data, and also of parameter non-constancy and underspecification. Hence, a realistic alternative is often to guess rather than to estimate...

This paper reviews the history of housing in Poland since World War II. It then formulates an econometric demand-supply model for state and for private housing. The two submarkets are connected through certain spillovers. While the state market is assumed always to exhibit excess demand,...

Empirical distributions of the studentized Augmented Dicky-Fuller cointegration statistic for data generated by simulation are analyzed for small samples. Empirical 1 percent, 5 percent and 10 percent fractiles are tabulated for various sample sizes and various numbers of regressors. It is found...

This paper presents empirical results testing the nature of output in output-plans relations for net material product and consumption for seven European CMEA countries, 1960-1985. The dispute between the genetic and teleological schools of central planning is discussed. In general, a plan is...

This paper investigates causes of the stagflation phenomena which appeared in Poland in the period after the "shortageflation", i.e. after February 1990. It is conjectured that one of the primary reasons for the appearance of the stagflation was substantial market uncertainty, which led to a...

Empirical evaluation of macroeconomic uncertainties and their use for probabilistic forecasting are investigated. A new weighted skew normal distribution which parameters are interpretable in relation to monetary policy outcomes and actions is proposed. This distribution is fitted to recursively...

The paper introduces a t-ratio type test for detecting bilinearity in a stochastic unit root process. It appears that such process is a realistic approximation for many economic and financial time series. It is shown that, under the null of no bilinearity, the tests statistics are asymptotically...

The paper analyses inflationary real effects in situation where there are frequent episodes of high inflation. It is conjectured with the increase in high inflation, and when differences between the expected and output-neutral inflation become large, output stimulation through inflationary...

Issues related to classification, interpretation and estimation of inflationary uncertainties are addressed in the context of their application for constructing probability forecasts of inflation. It is shown that confusions in defining uncertainties lead to potential misunderstandings of such...