In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Bayesian non-linear time series framework, our modeling approach assumes that different regimes are characterized by...

In this paper, we use a Bayesian global vector autoregressive model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a flattening of euro area yield curves. Our findings indicate positive effects on real activity and prices, both within the euro area as well as in neighboring economies. Spillovers...

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates produced by these priors can still have appreciable...

I derive the polar representation of Fieller's estimation of confidence sets for ratios and construct a polar plot of the test statistics for all angles associated with the ratios. This procedure helps in visualizing and clarifying, but also systematizing, the features of the Fieller solution....

Abstract EU integration, the process of EU enlargement and further visa liberalisation have encouraged increased population movements across Europe, some of which have taken new forms compared to previous migration waves. In particular, some destination countries have experienced high levels of...

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate models for predicting the carcass composition of lambs. Forty male lambs of two different breeds were included in our analysis. The lambs were slaughtered and their hot carcass weight was obtained. After cooling for 24 hours, the subcutaneous fat...

This paper studies how innovation strategies of Russian manufacturing firms affect various features of firm performance. A multi stage model is used, which relates the firm's decision to undertake R&D to its innovation output, technical efficiency, labor productivity, and growth. We also include...

Arguably, for many citizens the perceived expected disutility from sanctions is smaller than the monetary gain from tax evasion. Nevertheless most people pay their taxes most of the time. In a lab experiment, we show that the willingness to pay taxes even absent enforcement is indeed pronounced....

This paper describes a range of ‘minimum distance' methods used to compute new weights for large cross-sectional surveys used in microsimulation modelling. Extraneous information about a range of population variables is used for calibration purposes. An iterative solution procedure is...

In monetary Stock-Flow Consistent (SEC) models, accounting identities reduce the number of behavioral functions to avoid an overdetermined system of equations. We relax this restriction using a differential-algebraic equation framework of constrained dynamics. Agents exert forces the variables...