This paper applies recent statistical developments in the study of stock-market price movements to study the plausibility of the constant expected returns version of the present value model as an explanation of farmland prices. Using Iowa farmland price and rent data over the 1921-86 sample...

A popular model for assessing dependence on time is the linear trend plus autoregressive error model. Considerable effort has been devoted toward efficient esitmation of and testing for a linear trend in the presence of serial correlation. However, the testing procedures used in practice do not...

Projecting the Wildlife and Economics Impacts of United States Agricultural Policy Using Landscape-Level Analyses

Time series methods are used to study monthly inventory and sales dynamics in the U.S. market for new single-family homes. The inventory measure used is the inventory of unsold, new single-family homes, regardless of the stage of construction. Stylized facts regarding inventory, sales, the...

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This paper is concerned with forecasting time series generated by the linear trend model with autoregressive errors, allowing for a unit root in the autoregressive component. Time series of this sort play an important role in economics, particularly in macroeconomics. We produce simulation...

Falk has shown that there are large and systematic deviations of real farmland prices in Iowa from their fundamental values. Falk and Lee (FL) conclude that these deviations are more easily explainable in terms of fads rather than speculative bubbles. In his comment on FL, Roche argues that the...

Empirical studies of the effects of the Federal Reserve's weekly money-supply announcements on interest rates have tended to find that interest-rate changes following these announcements are positively correlated with the anticipated component of the announcement. These studies also have tended...