This paper explores the impacts of the Trump administration's trade policy on prices and welfare. Over the course of 2018, the U.S. experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of...

What is the role for supply and demand forces in determining movements in international banking flows? And what role might a common factor — the global financial cycle highlighted by Rey (Dilemma not trilemma: the global financial cycle and monetary policy independence, 2018) and others —...

A rapidly growing literature has shown that market concentration among domestic firms has increased in the United States over the last three decades. Using confidential census data for the manufacturing sector, we show that typical measures of concentration, once adjusted for sales by foreign...

A striking feature of many financial crises is the collapse of exports relative to output. In the 2008 financial crisis, real world exports plunged 17 percent while GDP fell 5 percent. This paper examines whether deteriorations in bank health can help explain the large drops in exports relative...

We show that supply-side financial shocks have a large impact on the investment decisions of firms. We do this by developing a new methodology to separate firms' credit shocks from loan supply shocks, using a vast sample of matched bank-firm lending data. We decompose loan movements in Japan for...

Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using...